here is the decision tree i used for this analysis:
here is the spreadsheet showing the 'worst case' ev of a donk bet. some general observations are:
- the roi on our 6bb 'investment' can vary from +54% to -80% depending on opponent and board texture.
- dry flops are generally better than wet, but are also more exposed to bluff %,
- A - high and 2-broadway flops are bad, but are more protected from bluff %,
- ...more?
if you look at that decision tree, you may notice the alternate path for bb response to a btn flop raise. it wasn't used for the #'s in the spreadsheet, but is the beginning of accounting for our hand value and developing a more complete donking strategy. if anybody wants the .stx file, or has other thoughts or ideas on this, let me know.
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Dumb question time. I've never heard the term wet or dry flop before... what is it?
ReplyDeleteA dry flop is a flop where there are very few if any draws, an example would be something like Q,7,2 of all different suits (rainbow) another example might be a paired board like J,J,4 rainbow. On the other hand a wet flop is one where a bunch of different draws are possible, J,T,4 with two of a suit for example.
ReplyDeleteThe reason this is important is that a wet board gives your opponent many more possible combinations of hands that are willing to continue to fight for the pot. A dry flop helps fewer combinations of your opponents hand range so he is less likely to have a hand to contnue.
yeh, dumb fer sure. they're just refer to how many draws and strong made hands are available.
ReplyDeletedry: Kh7s2d
wet: JhTh9h
moist?: Qh7h5s