Friday, October 30, 2009

yesterdays direction leads to slight digression...


so, here's another scenario that might play out on our favorite flop 864t (incidentally, this happens to be my favorite flop - i like to call it the 'heart mattack'):


3b pot, oop, w/o initiative, c/r v. cbet:
  • co opens top 25%,
  • btn 3bets 10.5% of hands: [TT+, AQ+] + 40% of [Axs, KQs, QJs, KJs, scs, ATo-AJo, KQo] + 25% of [other suited broadways, suited gappers, offsuit connectors],
  • co calls [55-QQ, ATs-AQs, KQs, AQo] + 10% frequency for [AA-KK, 22-44, 54s-JTs],
  • co checks,
  • btn cbets all hands w/ equal frequency, EV = +6.6bb
  • co shoves [tp+, fd, oesd, 1pr+bdfd, 1pr+gutter], folding 31%, EV = +15.3bb
  • btn calls [tp+, fd], folding 62%, EV = +15.4bb

i guess that's pretty interesting. the basic lessons are:

  1. co perspective: c/r a wide range of hands w/ equity if you're going to call oop v. a light 3b from button, and you expect him to cbet a balanced range,
  2. btn perspective: you can cbet in this spot profitably w/ your entire range, even if co is shoving hands as weak as T8s, [it's possible that it's more profitable to check behind, but i'll save that for another day...]
  3. i ignored a co flop calling range, and didn't address how the hand might play out if btn checks back, but i'd like to move on to a related topic, so w/e...
the related topic is whether we should or need to call 3bets oop like this at all. i'll post something along those lines soon.

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