low/mid non-paired 2-tone boards: e.g. 864hh

this might be the first in a series of posts analyzing different flop textures across a variety of situations. there will be some work involved, so i want to pick good flops. in my opinion, 'good' means flops that different players approach most differently. i think there is where we will find edge.

so, i picked 864t and did some calcs for different lines/situations:

raised pot, ip w/ initiative, facing flop c/r:

• btn-or top 50% [22+, Ax, Kxs, suited 2-gap+, offsuit 1-gap+] v.
• bb-cc middle 14.3% [55-99, 50% Axs, broadways JTo-AJs, 98s-J9s]
• bb checks flop
• btn bets all hands
• bb raising ranges (folds otherwise)
• [1p+, bdfd+, gs+] = 60.9%
• [tp+, fd, oesd, 1pr+gs, 1pr+bdfd] = 22.8%
• [tp+, fd, oesd] = 15.2%

raised pot oop w/o initiative, c/r flop:

• btn-or top 50% [22+, Ax, Kxs, suited 2-gap+, offsuit 1-gap+] v.
• bb-cc middle 14.3% [55-99, 50% Axs, broadways JTo-AJs, 98s-J9s]
• bb checks flop
• btn bets all hands
• bb raises all hands
• btn continuing ranges:
• [1p+, bdfd+, gs+] = 79.6%
• [tp+, fd, oesd, 1pr+gs, 1pr+bdfd] = 46.4%
• [tp+, fd, oesd] = 35.7%

raised pot oop w/o initiative, DONK flop v. passive btn:

• btn-or top 50% [22+, Ax, Kxs, suited 2-gap+, offsuit 1-gap+] v.
• bb-cc middle 14.3% [55-99, 50% Axs, broadways JTo-AJs, 98s-J9s]
• bb leads flop w/ all hands for 5bb, EV = +0.6bb
• btn calls [overcards+, gs+, bdfd+], 97%
• bb bets all turns w/ all hands for 14bb (pot = 16.5bb), EV = +5.5bb
• btn calls [tp+, any 2-card fd, K or A 1-card fd, oesd], 45.5%, folding otherwise 54.5%
• bb checks all hands
• btn bets all hands
• bb calls w/ [2p+], 14.6%, folding otherwise, EV = +7.0bb

raised pot, cbet oop w/ initiative; raise cbet ip w/o initiative:

• mp-or top 15%,
• btn-cc speculative 15% [22-TT, A2s-AQs, suited broadways less than AK, AJo, AQo, KQo]
• mp cbets 8bb into 8.5bb w/:
• [all hands], EV = +3.1bb,
• btn raises 3x w/ [all hands], EV = +4.2bb
• mp shoves [tp+, fd, oesd], EV = +11.1bb
• btn calls [tp+, fd, oesd], EV = +4.4bb
• [1p+, fd, oesd, overs+bdfd, over+gutter, var1% of others], EV(v1=25%) = +4.8bb,
• btn raises 3x [all hands], EV(v1=25%) = +1.1bb
• mp shoves [tp+, fd, oesd], EV(v1=25%) = +14.1bb
• btn calls [>=tp, fd, oesd], EV(v1=25%) = +4.4bb,
• please take a look at the following spreadsheet and help me think about how to 1. maximally exploit an 2. play unexploitibly from each postion: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tTyA0M_lIGVZJG0erviMftQ&output=html

some other lines i'll probably look at:

3b ip w/ initiative

3b ip w/o initiative

raised oop w/ initiative

3b oop w/ initiative

i also looked at some players i had largish samples on in my db and summarized their tendencies.

reg stats:

1. BamYeah: 445 hands 
1. cbet = 73%
2. success = 26%
3. fold to cbet = 60%
4. raise cbet = 10%
5. fold to raise = 42

1. UKFAN1687: 1550 hands
   
   
   1. cbet = 42%
   2. success = 45%
   3. fold to cbet = 51%
   4. raise cbet = 38%
   5. fold to raise = 47%
   
   
   
2. CountZer01: 1529 hands 
1. cbet = 65%
2. success = 42%
3. fold to cbet = 52%
4. raise cbet = 20%
5. fold to raise = 19%
cbboy: 459 hands


1. cbet = 39%
2. success = 29%
3. fold to cbet = 41%
4. raise cbet = 23%
5. fold to raise = 25%



nimuuuh: 1310 hands


1. cbet = 64%
2. success = 43%
3. fold to cbet = 46%
4. raise cbet = 12%
5. fold to raise = 36



Smart LAG: 695 hands


1. cbet = 66%
2. success = 26%
3. fold to cbet = 24%
4. raise cbet = 42%
5. fold to raise = 40%



Bluffsalot83: 724 hands


1. cbet = 61%
2. success = 41%
3. fold to cbet = 44%
4. raise cbet = 35%
5. fold to raise = 58%



AmexCenturian: 1058 hands


1. cbet = 75%
2. success = 31%
3. fold to cbet = 48%
4. raise cbet = 30%
5. fold to raise = 47%



beatis: 1373 hands


1. cbet = 62%
2. success = 44%
3. fold to cbet = 41%
4. raise cbet = 30%
5. fold to raise = 48%


Yongsuk Chang: 1208 hands


1. cbet = 48%
2. success = 40%
3. fold to cbet = 46%
4. raise cbet = 17%
5. fold to raise = 36%



pokerPIMP_5: 997 hands


1. cbet = 46%
2. success = 44%
3. fold to cbet = 54%
4. raise cbet = 8%
5. fold to raise = 35%

not sure what that's worth, but moving on...