T87t, QJo oop when agro btn raises my cbet...

so, here's a hand i played yesterday where i way overweighted a stat read (and ignored the results of recent posts):

i dont recall any recent history or have any specific reads on GambitMJ. the relevant stats i looked at were:

vpip/pfr = 20/18

3b from btn = 9%

cc from btn = 7%

raise cbet = 35%

http://www.holdemmanager.net

NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer Game#15729854641

ALFeRICH ($247)

ure a towel ($270)

beatis ($243)

kewl99 ($117)

pRip43 ($40)

GambitMJ ($203)

ALFeRICH posts (SB) $1

ure a towel posts (BB) $2

pRip43 posts (SB) $1

Dealt to beatis Qh  Jc

beatis raises to $7

fold, fold,

GambitMJ calls $7

fold, fold,

FLOP ($18) 8h  Th  7c

beatis bets $14

GambitMJ raises to $40

beatis raises to $236 (AI)

i posted this in the leggopoker forum where people said to c/f this flop. i fully agree v. a player who isn't raising cbets so often, but v. this guy i thought it would be better to give him an opportunity to spaz out so that i could then respaz out.

so, i imported the hand into stoxev and assigned him some ranges:

• preflop call w/ [22-TT, 54s-JTs], 10% weight on [AA, KK, AK, suited 1-gap], 20% weight on [JJ-QQ, AQo, AJo, KQo, other suited broadways] = 7.5% of hands
• raise cbet w/ [1pr+, fd, oesd, var1% of all others], 
• call shove w/ [tp+, fd, oesd, pr+gs]

i then varied how often he raises the flop w/ 'air' to get the following graph of the ev of a shove v. var1%:

obviously, my line is terrible v. these button ranges. but i wasn't ready to give up entirely, so i adjusted the cbet raising range to exclude some 1pr hands by defining a calling range as [1p+bdfd, 1pr+gs] to see if that might help me justify my play. in order to get anything meaningful out of the sim, i need to continue the tree out to the end in a reasonable way. i attempted to do that and see that it just shifted the redline up by ~5bb (orange line above). so, it helps to remove some of the 1pr hands from btn's raising range, but not nearly enough to make the shove profitable.

just to belabor this a bit more, if btn raises 100% and only calls w/ a range as tight as [tp-K kicker, fd, 1pr + oesd], the cbet nets -$7.52.

i suck.