(disclaimer: i'm not so great w/ details sometimes, so take this fwiw and please let me know if something looks wrong)
1. flop:
Ah9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls
>=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (41.1); [56.7]; {70.9}
- 30, (38.0); [48.9]; {71.9}
- 40, (47.9); [59.4]; {79.9}
- 50, (47.1); [58.2]; {74.6}
2. flop: Kh9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (25.4); [61.3]; {72.6}
- 30, (31.5); [56.7]; {77.4}
- 40, (45.9); [64.7]; {83.6}
- 50, (51.9); [69.5]; {84.5}
3. flop:
Qh9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (25.6); [54.4]; {63.1}
- 30, (32.4); [53.6]; {73.2}
- 40, (42.4); [62.4]; {79.8}
- 50, (49.9); [69.5]; {83.5}
4. flop:
Jh9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (25.3); [54.2]; {61.6}
- 30, (31.2); [52.7]; {69.9}
- 40, (39.2); [58.9]; {75.3}
- 50, (46.6); [65.0]; {78.3}
5. flop:
8c9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (43.9); [67.9]; {69.1}
- 30, (34.6); [53.5]; {59.9}
- 40, (32.1); [52.1]; {63.8}
- 50, (37.7); [56.1]; {69.2}
6. flop:
5d5c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (65.6); [67.7]; {70.2}
- 30, (69.8); [73.9]; {76.0}
- 40, (66.4); [71.8]; {74.1}
- 50, (63.7); [71.6]; {75.7}
7. flop:
AhQc3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (3.70); [50.0]; {70.1}
- 30, (26.0); [56.3]; {72.1}
- 40, (42.7); [68.2]; {80.1}
- 50, (42.2); [64.7]; {75.1}
8. flop:
8h8c7d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (62.7); [80.8]; {81.8}
- 30, (57.6); [74.8]; {79.1}
- 40, (46.3); [66.2]; {75.4}
- 50, (50.9); [67.3]; {77.8}
9. flop:
ThTc3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (53.6); [56.3]; {72.2}
- 30, (67.1); [68.9]; {79.9}
- 40, (74.2); [75.3]; {84.4}
- 50, (76.8); [77.8]; {87.0}
10. flop:
JhTh9d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (1.35); [27.5]; {38.8}
- 30, (5.50); [31.1]; {38.0}
- 40, (13.9); [38.9]; {44.4}
- 50, (22.4); [45.4]; {50.1}
some observations: - the effectiveness of check-raise bluffs on some flop textures is WEAKLY dependent on button OPENING range, see flops 1, 5, 6, 8 and 9.
- the effectiveness of check-raise bluffs on some flop textures is WEAKLY dependent on button CALLING range, see flop 6, and to a lesser extent 8 and 9 (note that these flops are all paired and all included in observation 1).
- the effectiveness of check-raise bluffs on some flop textures is STRONGLY dependent on button OPENING range, see flops 2, 3, 4, 7 and 10.
- the effectiveness of check-raise bluffs on some flop textures is STRONGLY dependent on button CALLING range, see flops 1-5, 7 and 10.
some discussion: the obvious general cause of observations 1 & 2 is that these flops are hard to hit (few draws and 2pr+ hands) and that 'any pair' ~ >=mp ~ >=tp. that is, the ranking of starting hand strength is relatively unchanged after the flop. for example, on flop 1
Ah9c3d it should be obvious that once the button opening range includes all Ax and pp(TT+), there is no way to further increase the number of top or 1p>mp hands. similarly, observations 3 & 4 identify flops that interact strongly with the top x% of starting hands. i suspect that the ability to quickly and accurately adjust to these types of flops is a major source of
reciprocal gold.
more discussion: consider flop 2,
Kh9c3d; (btn calls any pair, fd, gutshot+); [btn calls >=mp, fd, oesd]; {btn calls >=tp, fd, oesd}
- 20, (25.4); [61.3]; {72.6}
- 30, (31.5); [56.7]; {77.4}
- 40, (45.9); [64.7]; {83.6}
- 50, (51.9); [69.5]; {84.5}
two obvious points stand out: first, the button is very susceptible to being c/r bluffed if he is not calling w/ mid pairs. second, c/r bluffing against a btn capable of calling light or floating greatly reduces the profitability of an isolated flop c/r. considering turn play, if we
take the open-raising range of 40% and use the second c/r calling range of [>=mp, fd], we find that
btn is left holding <=mp on the turn 51% of the time. thus, if btn continues past the turn only w/ a range of {>=tp, fd, 1p+>=gs}, they will be folding 43.8% of the time, and provide the bb an opportunity to fire a profitable 2nd barrel. considering a complete decision tree, where bb fires all turns, btn calls w/ {>=tp, fd, 1p+>=gs}...bb bets river with >=tpmk (checks otherwise), btn calls w/ >=tp, or bets when checked to w/ >=2p (bb always folds river after checking). we find that the
flop c/r ev = 4.8bb, and the
turn 2nd barrel ev = 9.4bb. interestingly, there is not a -ev decision for either bb or btn in this particular tree if the bb calls preflop w/ atc. if we apply this identical analysis to other flops, we find:
1.
Ah9c3d - btn cbet ev = 1.6bb
- bb c/r ev = 3.9
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 9.6bb
3.
Qh9c3d- btn cbet ev = 1.0bb
- bb c/r ev = 4.5bb
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 8.3
4.
Jh9c3d- btn cbet ev = 1.4
- bb c/r ev = 4.2
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 7.3
5.
8c9c3d- btn cbet ev = 2.7
- bb c/r ev = 2.7
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 7.3
6.
5d5c3d- btn cbet ev = 1.4
- bb c/r ev = 4.3
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 0.5
7.
AhQc3d- btn cbet ev = 2.4
- bb c/r ev = 3.2
- bb 2nd barrel ev = 2.7
8.
8h8c7d- btn cbet ev = 2.4
- bb c/r ev = 3.2
- bb 2nd barrel ev = (1.9)
9.
ThTc3d- btn cbet ev = 1.5
- bb c/r ev = 4.2
- bb 2nd barrel ev = (0.7)
10.
JhTh9d- btn cbet ev = 6.9
- bb c/r ev = (1.6)
- bb 2nd barrel ev = (1.7)
unless i'm missing something, the thing that stands out here is that c/r bluffing and 2nd barreling are rarely significant ev mistakes v. most btn open ranges. that's not to say that these plays are anywhere near optimal. [note: btn cbet ev is biased by the bb pf call + flop c/r range of ALL HANDS.] i've expanded this ev analysis to include the ten flops above across the different opening ranges in this spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pvjFKb7H91Rrpd-aisSImAQ 
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